Increase in Crime Is No "Gathering Storm"

Analysis of factors and indicators determine whether increase in violent crime from 2004 to 2005 is "a gathering storm"

By Famin Ahmed, NCPC Senior Multimedia Editor and Writer

In 2006, the Police Executive Research Forum (PERF) commented on the significant increase in violent crime from 2004 to 2005 that was reported in the FBI’s 2005 Uniform Crime Reports. The elected president of PERF, Chief William Bratton of the Los Angeles, CA, police department, called it “a gathering storm.” Richard Rosenfeld, Curators professor of criminology and criminal justice at the University of Missouri–St. Louis, disagrees.

“Yes, there was an increase,” says Rosenfeld, “but if you look carefully, the [rate for homicide] in 2006 almost matches the rate in 2003. The increase bears watching, but I wouldn’t characterize this as ‘a gathering storm.’”

Rosenfeld studies coincident factors to predict crime rates. For example, factors such as rising drug rates or an increased use of firearms in violent crime can lead to rising rates of robbery or homicide. Similarly, a good economy usually leads to lower crime rates. Rosenfeld notes that crime dropped in the 1990s because of an increase in the rate of imprisonment and a booming economy. “Economic improvement leads to decreases in violent crime,” he says.

The economic indicator Rosenfeld likes to study the most is “consumer sentiment.” Consumer sentiment is derived from a survey administered to a sample of consumers to test how they feel about the economy and their current economic position, as well as how they anticipate they will feel in a year. Rosenfeld feels that this indicator tracks well with property crime and robbery rates: when the consumer sentiment is pessimistic, crime rates go up; when consumer sentiment is optimistic, crime rates go down. And this year’s consumer sentiment will say something about both this year’s and next year’s crime rates for robbery. He’s had similar results comparing consumer sentiment and homicide rates.

Rosenfeld also follows other indicators and has noted that crime rates tend to go down in communities where there are more police and higher rates of imprisonment. Rosenfeld said that although imprisonment can have complex effects on crime, increasing imprisonment rates have been associated with declines in crime, at least in the short run.

Using prediction models based on several indicators such as consumer sentiment, Rosenfeld predicts that there may be a moderate increase in robbery rates from 2006 to 2007; however, this increase will be much smaller than the rise from 2005 to 2006. Rosenfeld is conducting an ongoing study of 22 cities across the country. The preliminary numbers from this study do not indicate a rising crime rate. In fact, if the rates don’t change significantly through the year, there might even be a decline in crime. So, although Rosenfeld acknowledges that the preliminary numbers are from a sample of the country and that crime rates often change with the season, he feels that “we are unlikely to have an increase [in crime] like the one we did in 2006.”

What can we do to prevent a rising crime rate? Rosenfeld says that these factors can lead to a decline in crime rates.

•  Booming economy
• Effective imprisonment
• More police

He added that local factors, like the initiatives to stem crime in New York City, can also have a significant effect on the crime rate.