Crime Heading Down, According to FBI Report

Crime is down in most parts of the country, according to the FBI’s 2007 Crime in the United States Report. It has lots of surprises.

By Martin W.G. King, NCPC Staff

It was the crime wave that wasn’t. Rather than a third year of rising crime, the FBI’s 2007 Crime in the United States: Preliminary Annual Uniform Crime Report shows that crime actually declined in most categories across the country last year. Overall, violent crime dropped 1.4 percent when compared with 2006 and property crimes dropped 2.1 percent.

The report, just released by the FBI, has a number of surprises. The FBI’s Northeast region, the location of many big cities often thought to be rife with violent crime, saw the biggest drop, 5.4 percent overall with an 8.6 percent drop in murders and non-negligent manslaughter. In cities across the country with populations of more than one million people, the murder rate dropped a startling 9.8 percent. However, cities with populations of 50,000 to 99,999 provided a stark contrast: murder and non-negligent manslaughter increased 3.7 percent.

In fact, violent crime was down in two of the three other regions, as defined by the FBI. In the West and the Midwest, violent crime was down 1.7 percent in each region, while in the South it rose by 0.7 percent. The FBI includes figures for murder and non-negligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault in its violent crime category.

Overall, cities with populations of 250,000 to 499,999 saw the greatest decline in violent crime—down 3.9 percent. In addition, aggravated assault showed a welcome drop in cities of this size, with a decline of 4.3 percent. Unfortunately, cities with 10,000 to 24,999 people saw an increase of 3 percent in aggravated assault.

The report’s figures for rape indicate a downward trend for the last three years, with declines of 1.2 percent in 2005/2004, 2 percent in 2006/2005, and a significant 4.3 percent drop for the most recent reporting period. Dramatically, rape dropped 8 percent last year in cities with populations of one million or more.

Property crime decreased across the board in 2007—jurisdictions of all sizes saw declines. The crimes included in this overall category—burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft—have been dropping steadily for four years, with declines of 1.1 percent in 2004/2003, 1.5 percent in 2005/2004, 1.9 percent in 2006/2005, and 2.1 percent for the current reporting period. Arson, which the FBI treats separately, has also dropped steadily downward, from a 6.4 percent decline in 2004/2003 to a 7 percent drop last year.

The figures for burglary are interesting, too. Burglaries dropped by 3.3 percent in cities with 500,000 to 999,999 inhabitants, but they increased by 4 percent in cities with populations of 1 million or more.

Most noteworthy, perhaps, is the downward trend in motor vehicle theft. While car theft declined by only 1.9 percent in 2004/2003 and 0.2 percent in 2005/2004, it dropped by 3.5 percent in 2006/2005 and a huge 8.9 percent last year.

In the Northeast, property crimes were down overall by 2.9 percent; in the Midwest, 3.8 percent; and in West, 4.7 percent. Only in the South did property crime rise—by 1.1 percent.

Of course, none of these figures are any comfort to people who have been victimized or to their relatives and friends who have been scarred as well. The fact that crime appears to be declining is cold comfort to those who have lost a loved one. And the FBI cautions that these figures are preliminary and should not be interpreted too broadly.

Resources

U.S. Census Bureau, The 2008 Statistical Abstract, www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/law_enforcement_courts_prisons/crimes_and_crime_rates.html

Federal Bureau of Investigation, www.fbi.gov