Unexpected Drops in Crime Fly in the Face of Conventional Wisdom

In some cities, crime has dropped unexpectedly. Better policing strategies and new technology appear to have helped.

By Angela Sivak, NCPC Intern

With the economy in recession, one could hardly expect crime rates to go down. However, that is just what is happening in some big cities.

National statistics are not available yet for 2009, but anecdotal information and statistics kept by some major cities indicate that violent crime is dropping. According to an article in the Washington Post, violent crime has plummeted in the Washington, DC, area and other major cities such as New York, Minneapolis, and Baltimore. It appears that the common belief that crime rises as the economy declines may not always be true, at least in some parts of the country.

“Experts did not see this coming at all,” said Andrew Karmen, criminologist and professor of sociology at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York, who was quoted in the Washington Post article.

From a criminologist’s perspective, the decline in crime might not be surprising. During the Great Depression in the 1930s, crime was relatively low compared to the Roaring Twenties, when the country experienced a greater amount of crime.

Whatever the cause for the decrease, however, police are taking credit for it. As Washington, DC, Metropolitan Police Chief Cathy L. Lanier said in the Washington Post article, “Everybody wants to beat us up when [crime] goes up, so we'll take credit for it when it goes down.”

And crime certainly has gone down. In Baltimore there has been a dramatic drop in all violent crime this year, except for homicides. According to an article in The Sun, the Baltimore daily, major crime between January and July 2009 declined 7 percent, with a 30 percent drop in shootings, 10 percent drop in robberies, 7 percent drop in assaults, and 5 percent drop in burglaries. Armed robberies were down by 21 percent and armed assaults were down by 26 percent. In the Washington, DC, area, the Washington Post says homicides have dropped by 17 percent.

Perhaps this decrease in crime is related to the strategies some cities have been implementing to prevent crime. The Baltimore police are currently using technology called Comstat, which allows police to analyze crime trends and predict when and where future crimes may occur. According to the article in The Sun, “this allows the cops to deploy and alter strategies as needed.”

Washington’s drop in crime may be due to the same thing: advanced strategies and adeptness that facilitate crime prevention. The city has created a computerized weekly report that alerts the police to which gangs or “crews” may be feuding that week and when and where they may be gathering. With this knowledge, the police are more prepared to prevent crime. The city this year is on track to have fewer homicides than it has had since 1964, when racial unrest and civil disturbances over the Vietnam War were just beginning.

D.C. Police Chief Lanier mentions that the drop in crime may also be related to improved relationships between the police department and the community. Residents frequently provide tips to the police that can help officers keep violent offenders off the streets. "The community is giving us more information than ever," Lanier said in the Washington Post article. "They're used to seeing the same cop in the neighborhood every day. They feel comfortable. They have a connection to that officer."

Chuck Wexler, executive director of the Washington-based Police Executive Research Forum, said, “This does come at an important time . . . . summer is when you see the most significant increase in street violence. Departments have had to be more strategic in terms of gangs and hot spots."

Despite the impressive decrease in crime for many cities, crime does not seem to be down everywhere. In Detroit, murder rates appear to have increased to the point where the city is the murder capital of the country—or is it? The FBI says crime rates have dropped. Recently appointed Police Chief Warren Evans explained that the city’s crime is not increasing; the apparent increase is due to past errors. In an article published on TV20 Detroit.com, Evans described how crimes have previously been underreported because of errors in manual record keeping over the last few years. Now, with improved, computerized record keeping, there appears to be an increase in crime, when, actually, rates have gone down, he said.

Washington and Baltimore, and maybe even Detroit, are among a number of major cities that have recently—and unexpectedly—experienced drops in crime. Although this finding, if proven to be accurate, flies in the face of conventional wisdom about the link between a sour economy and an increase in crime, it is certainly good news for law enforcement and citizens alike.